Ireland projected to miss 2030 target of reducing emissions by 51% — EPA

Kenneth Fox

Ireland is projected to achieve a reduction of up to 23 per cent in total greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, compared to a national target of 51 per cent.

To achieve a reduction of 23 per cent would require full implementation of a wide range of policies and plans across all sectors and for these to deliver the anticipated carbon savings.

The first carbon budget and second carbon budget are projected to be exceeded with almost all sectors on a trajectory to exceed their national sectoral emissions ceilings for 2030.

Ireland will not meet its EU Effort Sharing Regulation target of 42 per cent reduction by 2030, instead a maximum reduction of 22 per cent is projected.

Total emissions from the land sector are projected to increase by up to 95 per cent and Ireland is unlikely to meet our European commitments in this area.

It comes as our forestry reaches harvesting age and changes from a carbon sink to a carbon source.

Planned policies and measures for the sector, such as increased afforestation, water table management on agricultural organic soils and peatland rehabilitation are projected to reduce the extent of the emissions increase.

EPA analysis shows planned climate policies and measures, if fully implemented, could deliver up to 23 per cent emissions reduction by 2030 compared to 2018, down from the 29 per cent reduction projected last year.

This widening gap to the emissions reduction target of 51 per cent in Ireland’s Climate Act is driven by updated information provided by Governmental bodies.

They said Transport, Industry and the Buildings (Residential) sectors are projected to be the furthest from their sectoral emission ceilings in 2030, with emission reductions of up to 21 per cent, 12 per cent and 22 per cent respectively.

Agriculture emissions are projected to reduce by up to 16 per cent. A direct comparison of the agriculture sector against its sectoral emission ceiling is no longer viable due to the impact of updated science underpinning the estimated agriculture greenhouse gas emissions.

Speaking about the report, Laura Burke, director general of the EPA said: “The EPA’s projections show that full delivery of all climate action plans and policies could deliver a 23 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.

"Although emissions trends are going in the right direction, the gaps to our European and National emission reduction targets are now projected to be larger than last year. This highlights the economy-wide effort needed to decarbonise our society and the focus must shift from policy aspiration to practical implementation.”

“As we get closer to 2030 and receive more information on the impact of agreed policies and measures, it is concerning to see projected reductions and lack of progress in the delivery of actions to reduce emissions including in the electrification of our transport sector and the expansion of renewable electricity powering our homes and businesses and the implementation of carbon reduction measures in agriculture."