Premier League: Pundits' painful predictions

The end-of-season review is often a painful moment for the football pundit, yet provides an abundance of schadenfreude for the punters, who can casually roll their eyes and say: ‘and they’re the experts’ in faux exasperation at the fallibility of these so-called pros.

In this, a review of my preseason predictions puts me firmly among the other failures. Let’s be clear no one can predict the future of anything and if I could accurately foresee the outcome of a 20-team table, then I’d probably be enjoying a one-sided relationship with the bookies rather than trying to explain my decisions in this newspaper.

So, for no other reason than to laugh at its amazing inaccuracy, let us now take a look at how this expert’s prophecy for the 2024-25 season panned out. With 20 teams you’d think that there would be a fair chance of getting a few positions right, just by chance, but not for me. No, I only managed to pick one team in the right position and that was Leicester City who I picked would be in 18th place in the table, noting that their lack of business in the transfer market would ultimately cost them and so it did. So at least I got that right.

Rights and wrongs

To be fair, I did pick the correct top three and bottom three, but then nobody will hand out medals for that, especially if the order isn’t in the right order, apart from the aforementioned Foxes.

I correctly called Southampton’s and Ipswich’s demise, but I had the Tractor Boys in bottom spot on the basis that one would think that Southampton’s experience in the Premier League would be enough to see them avoid last place, not to mind putting in one of the worst performances in Premier League history.

Getting the top three right wins few prizes either, but the mindset back in August was whether Pep Guardiola’s Man City would win the title for a fourth year in a row, or could Arsenal and Mikel Arteta shake off the bridesmaid tag after two seasons as runners up> In the end, I speculated that Arsenal’s hunger for success would surely propel them into first. Something the Gunners struggled to exhibit despite some progress on many fronts.

Liverpool, under a new boss in Arne Slot, was in my opinion hampered by not doing any business in the transfer market. But I did point out that if he and the players clicked then they still had the bedrock of a great team that could make an impact. And boy what an impact they made.

Competitive

But this past season was different to others for so many reasons.

No one was expecting the competitiveness of the sides from 12th to sixth. The extra Champions League qualification for fifth place made the sides push hard in the hope of the big payout qualification. But even beyond that, midtable sides proved week after week how close they are to usurping the traditional top six hegemon. Consistently, Fulham, Brentford, Brighton, Bournemouth, and Crystal Palace provided stiff opposition and secured upset results against sides of superior pedigrees. Of all the surprise packages, Nottingham Forest were the most impressive and even for a while were competing for the top spot. They were in third place for so long that it seemed certain that under the guidance of Nuno Espírito Santo, and the surprise return in front of goal by Kiwi striker Chris Woods, that Forest was going to secure that treasured return to Europe’s top competition. But the run-in pressure began to tell in the final weeks and the experience of City and Chelsea told, which probably cost Espírito Santo’s the manager of the year award in the end too. If it’s any consolation they showed up the folly of my predictions where I put them one spot above the relegation places in 17th.

Strange gaps

There was no other gap between my prediction and their finishing spot other than Man United and Spurs, who went in the other direction. United I confidently foretold would finish fourth but I also warned that depended on the fallout of the club’s lack of confidence in then manager Erik ten Hag.

I had Ange Postecoglou’s Spurs in their regular sixth-place finish and had no idea that they could finish one place outside the drop in 17th yet still make the Champions League. Who could have predicted that?

The breath of fresh air in the season has been the inability to be confident that any side would beat any other side. And while Liverpool and Arsenal had exciting unbeaten runs, very few of their wins and draws could be deemed as comfortable, especially come the turn of the season after Christmas.

That competitiveness was shown by the fact that all the major trophies went in different directions, there were no doubles or trebles on the cards this year with the game and ers been all the better for it. Especially with Newcastle’s Carabao Cup and Palace’s FA Cup triumphs.

The advances in midtable competitiveness have already broken up the bailiwick of the top six. Can they make the progress to advance on the top four next season?

We will make that determination in my sure to be insightful pre-season predictions for the 2025-26 season come August.