Premier League: Upset merchants have made big impact on top of the table

In a Premier League season as unpredictable as this, it is refreshing to look at today’s list of fixtures and consider that the encounter between Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest may be the standout game of the weekend.

Sure, Man City hosting Chelsea in the evening game would be the traditional eye-catcher, but that was so 2024. For now, there is no denying that for the possible impact on the title and the shape of the top six in the table, then the Bournemouth hosting Forest game is the one to watch.

We are at the point, where two sides who many respected pundits thought would get relegated come season’s end, are now not only vying for Champions League qualification, but in Forest’s case, genuine title contenders.

That this has come to is mostly down to the extraordinary work of the clubs’ managers, Nuno Espirito Santo of Nottingham Forest, and Andoni Iraola of Bournemouth.

New ground

Forest and Bournemouth are in third and seventh place respectively and maybe even more importantly, meet each other coming off the back of impressive unbeaten runs for both clubs.

Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last 10 Premier League games (winning six and drawing four), with only the current top two sides Liverpool (on 17) and Arsenal (on 12) enjoying longer unbeaten league runs at present.

Forest’s unbeaten league run may even be seen as better than their opponents today, and while the run only extends to eight games, seven of them have been victories. A series of wins that has propelled them into third place, only behind Arsenal on goal difference.

A couple of weeks ago, this column outlined Espirito Santo side’s threat to Liverpool and they came away with a very credible draw at home against the league leaders, scoring an early goal from Chris Wood and then organising a defence for the rest of the game until Diogo Jota scrapped back an equaliser after an hour of frustratingly pounding on the Forest door.

And that is also the situation for Iraola’s Cherries. A side styled by him to counteract the possession-based, play out from defence culture adopted by the traditional top six sides over the past decade or more.

Strengths

Iraola and Espirito Santo have recognised their sides’ strengths and weaknesses and have created two sides built for speed, especially in the counterattack. For a fraction of the money enjoyed by the ‘big boys’ of the top six, who they have regularly upset this season.

The speed of the turnaround from defence to attack has been key to Forest and Bournemouth and both sides lead the league when it comes progressing the ball in metres per second from one end of the pitch to the other. When they recover the ball, it is all about immediately playing the ball to the no 9 or whoever is free to get the attack off to a sprinting start. It allows no time for sides like Liverpool and City, who commit their full backs to the attack, any time to get their defenders back to defend their own lines.

Bournemouth also lead the league for recovering high turnover balls that end with shots on goal, five more than the next best side, Chelsea.

Espirito Santo’s side know how to press, but usually allow the opposition to lull themselves into the comfort of continuous attacks on the Forest defence, only to then spring their trap with a quick sprint down the field while the opposition is still labouring to make it back. In contrast, Iraola’s players know how to press high, cutting down the distance they need to counterattack shocking their opponents with a quick reversal of possession, rather than killing their rivals’ spirits with energy-sapping sprints to get back to defend.

Espirito Santo’s likes an organised front, pushing back quickly as a combined attack. Whereas Iraola enjoys the open space of a high line with an even more intense, immediate, counter. Different approaches, but with the speed of the counter key to both tactics. And as we have seen, it is working, especially against the ing game of the ‘elite’ clubs.

Meetings

The league position suggests that the Forest approach is working best, but the question is what happens when these two sides meet?

In that respect, Bournemouth have had the edge of late over Forest. The Cherries are unbeaten in their last nine league meetings with Forest, winning five and drawing four. Their last defeat to Forest was a 2-1 away loss in the Championship, back in February 2015.

Strangely, the team scoring first has won none of the five Premier League meetings between Bournemouth and Forest, three ending in draws and two defeats for the side that broke the deadlock. In all five cases, it was the home side that opened the scoring.

It may make the meeting of these two counter-attacking sides a very cagey affair.