A u-turn and much uncertainty ahead: Looking back on the Trump tariffs saga so far

A great video on social media lets you watch in real time as the full implications of tariffs dawn on a Donald Trump er.

US political satirist Walter Masterson makes the short films and speaks with Maga (Make America Great Again) fans at rallies and events. 

In this particular video, filmed in Atlanta, presumably before last November’s US presidential election, he spoke with a t-shirt vendor who was, initially at least, a wild-eyed Trump true believer.

“I’m voting for the man who’s gonna take America back, baby! Donald J Trump, man, let’s go, let’s go!” the vendor said, holding up the red-hatted and gilded Trump head he had hanging around his neck on a chunky gold chain.

The vendor, who sells political t-shirts, then added that the biggest challenge facing his business was inflation, “because I’m a business owner and it hit me hard”. 

Asked if he buys his blank t-shirts in the US, the vendor explained that he does not, “because a blank [made] in USA costs me $20 (€18). I can’t afford that.

“See, that’s the thing Trump’s talking about: Manufacturing. All these companies have sold out over to the sweatshops. If we tax them, hit tariffs, the same item they’re making over there will cost the same to make over here.”

So far, so textbook Trump, but then Masterson explained that American consumers, rather than China, would pay the tariffs. At first, the vendor was having none of it: “The companies pay the tariffs, not us.” 

At this Masterson called in his associate, a large, red-bearded man called Jolly Good Ginger.

“I sell you something for $10 (€9), right, and then you’re going to sell it to him for $20,” Jolly explained to t-shirt guy. 

“But then I make you pay me $15 (€13) for it. Are you still going to sell it to him for $20?”

And that’s the precise moment when the man selling t-shirts realised what Mr Trump’s tariffs would actually mean for him, because he buys t-shirts that now have a tariff on them.

“Oh, it’s going to have to go up,” he said. “Yeah, the consumer foots the bill.” 

At this point in the video, Mr Ginger raises his hands to heaven, slaps Mr Masterson on the shoulder and walks off, saying, “Have a good day.”

On Wednesday evening, Irish time, a week after Donald Trump unveiled in the Rose Garden his big gameshow board of tariffs, Tánaiste Simon Harris was standing outside the US Capitol building, being interviewed ahead of his meeting with commerce secretary and noted hiberno-sceptic Howard Lutnick.

As Mr Harris was speaking to David McCullagh on RTÉ’s Six-One News, Mr Trump announced a 90-day stay on tariffs — bar a universal 10% tariff — for everywhere except China.

The move was ostensibly to allow space for negotiations, but it represented a remarkable volte face for the man who likes to pretend he wrote a book called The Art of the Deal.

Mr McCullagh had, moments earlier, quoted the US president’s bullish comments from his rambling, 90-minute speech to the national republican congressional committee fundraising dinner the night before.

“I’m telling you, these countries are calling us up, kissing my ass. They are. They are dying to make a deal.”

Adopting what he presumably thought was a funny voice, Mr Trump then mocked foreign leaders, whom he quoted as saying: “Please, please, sir, make a deal. I’ll do anything. I’ll do anything, sir!”

Maybe that did really happen somewhere outside of the president’s head, although oddly enough the White House refused to list the countries supposedly begging for a deal. 

U-turn 

Either way, Mr Trump performed a massive u-turn on Wednesday, going on his Truth Social site to announce the pause on tariffs, except for the universal 10% and an increased tariff on all Chinese goods coming into the US.

Afterwards, he told reporters he had decided to pause the tariffs, because “people were jumping a little out of line, they were getting a little bit yippy, they were getting a little bit afraid”.

Moments later, treasury secretary Scott Bessent marched out of the White House to explain that the abrupt turnabout had actually always been part of Mr Trump’s plan.

“President Trump created maximum negotiating leverage for himself,” he told reporters, with a straight face. “This was his strategy all along.”

There are rumours in Maga-land that the treasury secretary told the president to his face that, unless he reversed course on tariffs, Mr Bessent would quit.

Mr Trump, whom former allies say is a lot less brave when confronted without back-up in the real world, blinked.

It was quite a climbdown for the US president, who had until then appeared unmoved by the chaos on the markets, where trillions of dollars had been wiped out in recent days.

But immediately before his “they were getting a little bit yippy” announcement, the US government treasury market took a hit, with bond prices falling and US long-term interest rates rising.

Under normal circumstances, when equities fall, bond prices rise because investors buy them as a safe bet. However, with US bonds being sold off, it was clear that a wider disposal of US assets was under way, with panicked investors desperate to raise cash.

“No other president would have done what I did. No other president,” Mr Trump said, entirely correctly.

It’s not over yet, and he may well restart his tariffs at any time. His threats to go after pharma are still live and remain the stuff of nightmares for Ireland. 

They should also be the stuff of nightmares for poorer Americans, who will suddenly have to pay a lot more for medication.

Getting in to a trade war with China seems especially foolish. China is not a democracy, and Xi Jinping doesn’t have to worry about opinion polls, but he does play to win. 

If Chinese presidents mess up, they’re not seen living the high life on the golf course or the lecture circuit during their retirement.

Donald Trump is a creature of the 1980s. That’s where all of his cultural references come from and most of the songs he plays at his interminable rallies. 

Ironically, the 1980s are where the patron saints of neoliberalism, Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher, hail from, too.

One song he won’t play at his rallies is also from the 1980s, Bruce Springsteen’s My Hometown, and four decades on it still says a lot about the world that Reagan and Thatcher helped create for the people who now, in their desperation, vote for Donald Trump.

“Now Main Street’s whitewashed windows/And vacant stores/Seems like there ain’t nobody/Wants to come down here no more/They’re closing down the textile mill/Across the railroad tracks/Foreman says, These jobs are going, boys/And they ain’t coming back/To your hometown.”

Mr Trump’s big idea is that if he tariffs imports from the countries that took all those American factories and the jobs that went with them, those companies will come running back to the US. “The same item they’re making over there will cost the same to make over here,” in the words of Atlanta t-shirt Guy.

His big gamble will be on whether the people who voted for him can bear the pain that he has inflicted upon them long enough to achieve that dubious dream. It’s an insane plan and the odds aren’t on the side of the US president. The problem will be how much damage he will be able to do before he runs out of road.

Still, for the next three months at least, the proposed 20% tariffs on EU goods being sold into the US are off the table, which is some good news, even if the 10% tariff remains in place. For Irish food and drink exporters, 10% is better than 20%, although it remains a significant barrier to trade.

The 90-day pause on tariffs won’t help that Atlanta t-shirt vendor, however.

With Mr Trump’s tariffs on China at 145% on Thursday evening, those notional blank t-shirts he was importing from China for $10 were costing him $24.50 (€21) each before he got anything printed on them..

And, as t-shirt guy said himself, “Yeah, the consumer foots the bill.”